From News To Moves
President Trump’s firing of the BLS commissioner shakes investor confidence in official data. We have the play on the private, non-government reporting you can trust and on investments in dividend stocks, overseas markets, and gold that will thrive.
By Austin Payne
If you’re not pleased with your agency’s jobs report, you can always just fire the head of the agency.
On August 1, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a disappointing July jobs report. The report showed only 73,000 new jobs added during the month, but the bigger news item was the hefty revisions of its previous two reports: The BLS cut earlier numbers by more than 250,000, larger than average revisions by a wide margin.
President Trump claimed the revised data was manipulated against his administration and called for "truthful, pro-American data." He didn’t share any evidence of wrongdoing.
The firing of the BLS chief is about more than bad job numbers. It causes investors to reflect on a much bigger issue: Can you still trust Washington’s economic data? And what should you do if you can’t?
The BLS has always had issues, including delays, revisions, and outdated methods, but it was considered neutral. Its flaws were consistent across administrations, which meant investors could still trust the data to paint a meaningful picture.
Firing the messenger puts that consistency in doubt.
In March and April, when the BLS reported over 175,000 new jobs, the White House praised the data So what changed? The scoreboard stopped showing wins. But if you can’t trust the government’s job numbers, you can’t base your investments on the data.
There’s a silver lining, however: you can build a playbook that avoids this trap with two elements: follow the private market reports you can trust, and invest in assets that don’t rely on government reports.
Now that federal data is politicized, ditch the government’s lagging reports you cannot trust, like unemployment or CPI, and focus instead on independent, forward-looking private market reports that reflect real economic activity:
Freight & Shipping: Follow the Cass Freight Index (cassinfo.com) and AAR rail traffic (aar.org) because freight moves before final sales.
Consumer Spending: Rely on credit card transaction volumes from Visa, Mastercard, and AmEx earnings, plus bank spending trackers from Bank of America and JPMorgan.
Corporate Guidance: Look at forward EPS and sentiment from earnings calls. You can access transcripts through investor relations sites or Seeking Alpha.
Manufacturing Orders: Get an early read on demand for manufacturing from ISM New Orders Index and S&P Global PMI surveys.
Credit Conditions: Look at corporate bond spreads (FRED, ICE BofA indices) and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.
With less faith in U.S. official economic data, investors need to shift toward independent, market-driven signals. Here are your top choices to diversify into assets less reliant on Washington’s scoreboard:
The credibility of U.S. economic data is now in question. ETFs like VIG, ACWX, TIP, and GLD help investors hedge policy-driven risks, diversify globally, and lean on market-driven signals. This ensures that portfolios remain resilient even if Washington’s data becomes unreliable.
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