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Tech and Science
Invest in the Sky’s Operating System
Drones and air taxis will overwhelm today’s air traffic system. A $200 billion “iOS for the sky” is coming, and the firms building it will capture toll-booth profits.
By Austin Payne
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A 75-year-old California pilot recently reported his vintage Cessna had been stolen multiple times. Each time, the thief flew it between airports, then returned it in better condition, even topping it off with a new battery. Local police admitted they had “no real leads.”
It sounds like a curiosity. But it highlights a bigger problem: if one person can repeatedly steal a plane and fly low without detection, imagine what will happen when Amazon’s delivery fleet takes flight. How will we manage the sky when it's crowded with millions of autonomous drones and air taxis in the decade ahead?
That question is moving from theoretical to urgent. And the answer will be a new operating system software layer for aviation: the “iOS for the sky.”
Why the Sky Needs an Operating System
The Wild West Below 18,000 Feet
Commercial airliners fly in tightly controlled corridors. Below 18,000 feet, it’s a different story, as the news about the stolen plane demonstrates. ADS-B transponders, which transmit the position of the flying aircraft, aren’t required everywhere. Many small aircraft and drones operate invisibly in low-altitude pockets, where regulators have little coverage. That’s how a Cessna joyrider could pull off a string of thefts without tripping alarms.
A Rapidly Fragmenting Sky
The FAA reports over 820,000 drones registered, including 433,000 commercial units. More than 460,000 licensed remote drone pilots are already active. Joby Aviation expects commercial air taxi service in 2025. Amazon is scaling drone delivery routes. And Walmart just announced the world’s largest drone delivery expansion.
Your burger, your package, and maybe your Uber will be fighting for the same slice of the sky. We’re about to flood uncontrolled airspace with machines flying right over our unprotected heads while we're still unable to monitor one rogue Cessna.
The Scale of the Coming Surge
NASA projects 500 million drone deliveries annually by 2030 in the top 15 U.S. metros, plus 750 million passenger trips in urban air taxis. That’s millions of flights every day layered on top of (or rather, right below) current air traffic, which is orders of magnitude beyond what today’s air traffic control system was designed to handle.
From Towers to Software
The FAA realizes this pending gridlock cannot be resolved with human air traffic controllers. And it has passed BVLOS (beyond-visual-line-of-sight) rules that open the door for third-party Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) providers. Think of it as replacing centralized towers with decentralized, software-defined lanes.
Historical Echoes
In the 1990s, the internet faced similar scaling issues. Companies like Cisco that built the routers and traffic-shaping backbone saw stock prices rise tens of thousands of percent. Aviation is hitting that same scaling wall today. The companies building “traffic lights and toll booths” for the sky will own the choke points.
Your Finance Play on the iOS for the Sky
Drones and air taxis will overwhelm today’s air traffic system. A $200 billion market for aviation’s “iOS for the sky” is emerging, with backbone providers and drone operators set to capture toll-booth profits.
Bottom Line
Decentralizing air traffic below 18,000 feet will require a new operating system for the sky. ETFs like UFO, ITA, PPA, and ARKQ position you to capture growth across backbone software, defense systems, and drone operators, securing exposure to a $200 billion aviation transformation.
This website shares our opinions and commentary on markets, commodities, and other assets. We may receive financial compensation to include certain featured companies/services/etc. in this website. Such financial compensation may impact the placement, but it does not impact on our critical analysis. The opinions, analysis, and commentary contained in the website are not financial advice. Market data mentioned here may be delayed and is not real-time. Investments involve risk including the risk of loss of some, or all, of your investment, and may not be suitable for all readers. While we make a good faith effort to provide you with unbiased professional opinions, please don’t make investment decisions based solely on this content — always do your own research or talk to a qualified advisor before making any investment decisions. We’re not responsible for any actions you take based on what you read here.
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